2020 season - write off?
- Thread starter armaghlad
- Start date
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
It's all a big bloody conspiracy to clean up the planet and quieten thon wee teenage evangelist before grown ups start to believe her. Sure the Donald said at the start it's all fake news and he's never wrong so he isn't.
The Chinese pixies are flying out at night and in your windows to sprinkle ye with viral dust so if your number is up.................
The Chinese pixies are flying out at night and in your windows to sprinkle ye with viral dust so if your number is up.................
JoeH
Well-Known Member
Think outside the box and read some of my earlier posts
No need for everyone in the changing room and no need for huddles.
We are referring to at least 10weeks from now end of June, early July.
There would be 16 men minimum in the changing room. That’s too many
Have to be very optimistic to see much football before summer 2021.
Restrictions will ebb and flow until the development of a vaccine or an effective treatment. The shackles will come off a bit when infection rates drop, and then they'll go back on when infection rates pick up again (most likely this winter).
Businesses, schools, etc. will be allowed back during the lulls in infection levels with certain measures in place. These things are essential to life and to the health of the economy.
Mass recreational events like football matches, concerts, etc. will probably be deemed too risky even during the quiet times - we love these things, but we can live without them for while longer if it helps us deal with the big problem.
Restrictions will ebb and flow until the development of a vaccine or an effective treatment. The shackles will come off a bit when infection rates drop, and then they'll go back on when infection rates pick up again (most likely this winter).
Businesses, schools, etc. will be allowed back during the lulls in infection levels with certain measures in place. These things are essential to life and to the health of the economy.
Mass recreational events like football matches, concerts, etc. will probably be deemed too risky even during the quiet times - we love these things, but we can live without them for while longer if it helps us deal with the big problem.
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
I 100% agree we can live without these things. They are after all merely socialising and the protection of life will always be paramount. However economically very few clubs will be resilient enough to survive without income from games. Ulster/Munster/Leinster/Connaught GAA will be highly unlikely to survive without income from games. Croke Park (The GAA) will suffer greatly and will (laugh into our sleeves, but it is a fact) struggle to survive without income from games. All other sports codes and organisations will suffer similarly and without high tax revenue, no government will be able to support all these organisations for a prolonged period. There will be no sponsorship if there are no games for those sponsor names to be seen. And so it goes on.
It's not that very long ago here on this very forum we were conversing about how our games have become a business now and the amount it costs to run even a club. Again I stress that life is paramount, but and it's a big but, if the organisations we follow are to survive there has to be games played to generate revenue. I can't answer the "but how the hell can that happen?" question, but I can see why they would have to. It's very simple business maths. 1 goes out and zero comes in, then 100 becomes 99. 1 goes out and zero comes in, then 99 becomes 98 and so on until it gets to what point -100, -200, -300 before someone says it's no longer viable to hang on.
I just wish I had answers and not just more questions, because in all honesty I don't see how it goes again without change. The only thing I hold on to is that it's very fluid and every day seems to bring change, but public health MUST come first.
By the way I haven't worked for just over 6 weeks now as I have an underlying condition and my doctor advised me to isolate. I haven't even left home in all that time, so I fully get the need to play this right.
ShiftYa
Well-Known Member
I don’t think gaa clubs are in the financial trouble your trying to make out, while I see what your getting at most the the organisations councils and clubs won’t have big liabilities on there balance sheets, no big player wages they’ve committed to paying, most won’t have any loans to pay off and those that have will be on favourable terms for example I know the loan Cork took out for the redevelopment of their stadium a large part of it was from the gaa central council so most loans within the organisation are inter gaa loans so this isn’t a huge issue either. Not being professional works to our advantage in this situation and while times may be tough this year I believe we are more than fit to weather this storm. It may mean for some clubs that next year the £300 a week manager has to go to make way for a volunteer manager but so be it.
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
I'm not trying to make out anything my friend. I'm stating a fact. An example is the local Wolfe Tone's club. Spent an absolute fortune on the new fields developing them a few years back. Yes got a grant from Sport NI and the rest was a loan from First Trust/AIB. No GAA secured loan. I know that as a fact. The repayments still have to be met. Ground maintenance is around £18k - £20k a year and still has to be paid to keep the pitches in pristine condition. If they don't they just end up chasing it to try and catch up and that will never happen. The bar rates, insurances, licences etc. still have to be paid. Electricity to run the fridges and coolers still keep coming in. Phone lines and broadband still is an expense to be paid.
You're very wrong in your assertion about Páirc Uí Chaoimh as it's in severe financial difficulty. SO much so that the lady who was financial controller for Ulster Council was appointed as head of a team to try and turn their financial woes around. It was major headlines across Ireland only just over a year ago. The cost to develop came in at around €110m which was budgeted at €57m leaving a massive hole in their finances. Croke Park did not increase their grant and Cork ended up selling some property and then getting bank loans to cover the difference. It was hoped that it would be paid back in 20 years, but now looks more like 50 years. That's not "most" loans.
But let's accept that most loans were secured from Croke Park (which would then make them one of the largest banks/lending organisations in Ireland). Where will their finance come from to secure those loans? The GAA is a "not for profit" organisation and put's the vast majority of it's income back into the counties and clubs (as reported in their annual accounts). How will they survive without income from counties and clubs? Without games being held in Croke Park and other venues that they receive income from when running various championships? Where will the money come from to issue grants to developing clubs/counties like the English Hurling that has massive money spent on them? What about all the wages for various staff in Croke Park itself including the likes of security and maintenance? What about all the money that goes to various counties to keep them alive using your utopia "nothing wrong here or to worry about "guvner"? What about the staff within the county? People like admin and games development officers. The likes of Denis Hollywood and the groundsmen who are full time staff. Is the money that central council "isn't getting and not a problem" going to bail them out? Have you forgotten that only a few short years ago our own county was in severe financial diffs and only for some very hard work at fund raising events, we could have been in serious diffs? With no games or events allowed, how will that debt continue to be paid.
You're right though. We are not in any real financial trouble at the minute. Look again at what I wrote. I acknowledge that in a round about way. BUT if the money keeps going out with nothing coming in, then that changes. You can't simply say we'll be aright jack sure central council will bail it out. Again I repeat from my post "Croke Park (The GAA) will suffer greatly and will (laugh into our sleeves, but it is a fact) struggle to survive without income from games. All other sports codes and organisations will suffer similarly and without high tax revenue, no government will be able to support all these organisations for a prolonged period. There will be no sponsorship if there are no games for those sponsor names to be seen. And so it goes on."
If you don't get what I mean by all that, then you don't need to worry. You don't understand economics. If you do (and I believe you do) you'll know I'm not being negative, but all my facts above are real and not fake news. I've seen you argue those points in the past. It's not just about the £30 (yes 30 pound) a week manager. There's a heck of a lot more involved than that and that's just our organisation without even looking at ladies and camogie, soccer, rugby etc.
ShiftYa
Well-Known Member
Croke Park isn’t going to go bust overnight they’ve 37.5 million sitting in their bank account with a lot of room to tighten their belt in relation to expenses. Same for counties, I believe last year it was reported it cost 30 million to run county teams in the gaa ( and sceptic in me believes that’s massively understated) which is roughly 1m per county which is a expense that can be done away with straight away if you ask me, I know this type of spending was one of the key issues in this years presidental election.
Point being I appreciate the organisation will suffer but with some belt tightening I believe the organisation as a whole has the resources to get through this without letting any clubs or countys go to the wall.
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
You're right. I agree. I've already acknowledged that no one is gonna go bust overnight, but sadly you have just proved me wrong in thinking you understood economics.
The balance sheet is exactly what I took my previous post from. Assume that the €30m is correct, that's leaves €7.5m. That's simple enough, but then look at current liabilities and assume it stays static, that's €90m+ needed to stand still. That's made up of wages and accrued outings such as loan repayments etc. This is all serviced with an income of €138m. With zero income in year one - and remember year end is October going by the posted accounts, that leaves you already €90m in the hole.
Economics isn't like real life where you look at you bank account and think, oh great I've a fiver so I can afford a small bottle of buckfast. It's about paying your debts and debtors first, then realising you need another 20 to just stand still but without borrowing that, you declare bankrupt. So you borrow and have have zero income and can't borrow again because you didn't repay the first loan, then where does that leave you? Not bust today, but staring at it from today on. The only way to then recover that money when let off the leash is to increase charges which your customers (us supporters) can't afford because our incomes have reduced and taxes increased to pay back the bail outs. THEN you are facing down going bust. But of course that is worst case. It won't happen, because the unicorns will pay it and everyone will win an All Ireland title.
It's simple. Without games running, eventually the money runs out and either desperation sets in and a rule is implemented to let everyone go back at it. If you don't want to take the chance, that's fine, but don't expect a helping hand when you get it tough. Then only the strong survive. That or the organisation say the risk is too big. We will fold the organisation and restart it as a new organisation and go again. Either way, everything changes.
I don't get how you can say that the expense of running teams can just be "done away with" at the stroke of a pen. Are you suggesting that the lads no longer get travelling expenses, food when training and on the road. Travel to the games becomes suddenly free and overnight stays are stopped, so you have lads leaving home at ridiculous o'clock and returning at stupid o'clock on match days, expecting them to be in the best position to perform and they'll be happy with that? What do we cut then and how do we justify it in a world where winning is everything - and you among others have previously said that not improving greatly every year is a failure? Are you saying that we will accept failure as normal?
And how will the organisation stop any clubs or counties going to the wall if they have no income to prevent it? Their current balance sheet shows they would be bankrupt soon even if they just stood still. Even remove the €30m for current liabilities and that leaves €60m to find in an account showing net balance of €37m (and remember that is cash or cash equivalents which means Promissories too or in other words, counties promising to pay them the fees owed from memberships etc. plus property portfolios so it's not all sitting in a bank waiting. That sees it as being roughly €23m in the red, just by sitting still.
I like your optimism (normally thrown at me), but as someone who deals with this almost daily, it's not as simple as we'd like it to be.
ShiftYa
Well-Known Member
I’m typing this off my phone so I won’t be going into as much detail as the post above but it’s clear your not the wizard on economics you claim to be. First of all your totally ignoring receivables and the fact that much of the current liability is made up of deposits held for other gaa outfits. The 30m is an expense paid by county councils which I said could be done away with in hard times so it doesn’t come into the equation. By my rough calculations with no match day income or expenses the gaa would run at a 19m loss a year which wouldn’t put us in a 90m hole straight away as you suggest. Your also completely wrong on the cash equivalents thing this would not include promissories (receivables) or property portfolios (non-current asset) so that point there just proves to me you don’t have the understanding of economics that you think you do. Your first point in the 4th paragraph is spot on but the organisation is well fit to let the year pass with playing any games and still be in a healthy position come this time next year.
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
I guess I have the luxury of doing this on a computer at the minute so I know what you mean about using the phone.
I'm not claiming to be a wizard at all. I just said that I do this on an almost daily basis so I understand a balance sheet quite well. Remember you were the one that introduced the balance sheet to prove how well you knew how rich the GAA was. It simply proved that long term, sitting on their hands and not having games just isn't an option.
Yep of course I mentioned the €90m at the start (funny how you noted that, but didn't follow on) and that was just to show that numbers ca be manipulated to suit things if needs be. By reading on, I broke down several scenarios and eventually showed that "just sitting still and having no games, using outgoings and expenditure minus the €30m you said we could do without spending, all in all it would a hole of roughly €23m this year alone.
Cash and cash equivalents are quickly recoverable liquid assets which can be used to pay off current liabilities, which are short-term debts and bills. These can and DO include promissories or property investments which can be turned around in 3 months or less. It's common and legal business practice although frowned on to use promissories as they're not always quickly recoverable or transferable to actual cash. Bit like having a guarantor without actually having one.
Anyway everyone else is bound to be dead bored with this now and your diversionary tactic to avoid explaining how you think that the expense of running a team can be simply done away with. There's no point in living in pixie land believing that all will be great and the GAA will simply bail everyone out because they have a few million in hand. It's on the media every single day about how businesses are starting to struggle severely because of no income. Why you believe the GAA will be any different baffles me, so indulge us all, just for a minute and assume I genuinely know nothing about the accounts (nor anyone else for that matter) and tell us how the organisation can survive without an income for another 6, 9 or maybe 12 months with income, because that's a reality situation if a second wave of infections hits!
ShiftYa
Well-Known Member
You say you understand a balance sheet quite well but I honestly don’t think you do given that in your prior post you seem to confuse current liabilities with operating expense quoting it a 90m + and income at 138 million. Nowhere on the balance sheet is income stated, income belongs on a statement of income. Yes retained earning is 138m but this is just total asset minus total liabilities. This makes me think you're confusing a balance sheet with a statement of profit and loss, two completely different things. Current in these terms means less than a year so, current assets minus current liabilities minus the 1m inventory that would leave 63.3m as stated in the above attachment minis the 19m a year I said it would take to run the organization if no games were played (much less than the 90+ million figure you seem to have come up with) leaves a cash balance in Croke park's account on the 31st October 2020 of 44.3m which is actually an increase of where it currently stands in terms of money in the bank. Imminent bankruptcy adverted. Though I suspect most of this 44.3 million will be distributed throughout the GAA to keep struggling clubs and councils afloat Croke park will definitely not be in the red. So the 23m hole you speak of just doesn't exist and the GAA is in little danger of going bust in the next 12 months. Again your wrong in general about the cash equivalents thing and more relevantly in Croke park's case as they do not have any promissories or property investments classed as cash equivalents. I hope that's a satisfactory answer for you because I've put more effort into this than I auth too.
But then again I'm quarantined and have nothing better to do on a friday night.
JoeH
Well-Known Member
Other items such as sponsorship, team and pitch side, ht draws, shops all have to be taken into account for counties.
But mostly the counties club championship takes in a lot of money as well as "friends" of and so on
Lets take a scenario.
Lets say there is no gaa this side of christmas and national leagues are left as they are meaning armagh and Roscommon get promoted
So next February armagh have dublin and Tyrone as two.home games. Theyd be sold out.
So lets say 10000 pay in - thats £200k twice so its £400k and lets say Armagh get 10%, £40k.
Ht draws, shops lets add 10k
Additional patrons sign up - lets say 50, thats £50k
So We are at 100k in one month income.
Lets say that's clear money.
So lets look at no supporters allowed in.
This is one county.
Our games are so intrinsically linked with income we cant survive 12months without a government bailout
Now add in other sports.
Lets look at a club that takes 50k to run.it
No lotto
No social club
No fundraising
No membership
All over the next 12months
Bills still have to be paid.
Lets say theres 2000 clubs in ireland all needing £10,000 to stay afloat - thats £20m. Monies needed for insurance, electric, water etc...
Now add in the loss of goodwill, mental health costs to the government.
We will learn to live with the virus, just like other virus's. Governments all over the world are saying this now.
A vaccine may not fully work - thats been proven many, many times.
Governments can not afford for the economy to fail, they cant have many companies going to the wall creating unemployment although that will happen once the furlough stops.
It will come down to a simple choice and I believe in a few months the general public will be living with the virus looking and seeking normality
Just look at reports about more people out and about.
But mostly the counties club championship takes in a lot of money as well as "friends" of and so on
Lets take a scenario.
Lets say there is no gaa this side of christmas and national leagues are left as they are meaning armagh and Roscommon get promoted
So next February armagh have dublin and Tyrone as two.home games. Theyd be sold out.
So lets say 10000 pay in - thats £200k twice so its £400k and lets say Armagh get 10%, £40k.
Ht draws, shops lets add 10k
Additional patrons sign up - lets say 50, thats £50k
So We are at 100k in one month income.
Lets say that's clear money.
So lets look at no supporters allowed in.
This is one county.
Our games are so intrinsically linked with income we cant survive 12months without a government bailout
Now add in other sports.
Lets look at a club that takes 50k to run.it
No lotto
No social club
No fundraising
No membership
All over the next 12months
Bills still have to be paid.
Lets say theres 2000 clubs in ireland all needing £10,000 to stay afloat - thats £20m. Monies needed for insurance, electric, water etc...
Now add in the loss of goodwill, mental health costs to the government.
We will learn to live with the virus, just like other virus's. Governments all over the world are saying this now.
A vaccine may not fully work - thats been proven many, many times.
Governments can not afford for the economy to fail, they cant have many companies going to the wall creating unemployment although that will happen once the furlough stops.
It will come down to a simple choice and I believe in a few months the general public will be living with the virus looking and seeking normality
Just look at reports about more people out and about.
An awful let of ‘let’s say’ in this
Do you really think managers are only taking £30 a week
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
Ok so to knock this on the head, I agree I know nothing about what I was talking about and made it all up just to look good and stupid at the same time. Sure it's what I do and just wind people up. You have now proven that you are an authority and know an awful lot about this. For that I am genuinely eternally grateful. Thank you.You say you understand a balance sheet quite well but I honestly don’t think you do given that in your prior post you seem to confuse current liabilities with operating expense quoting it a 90m + and income at 138 million. Nowhere on the balance sheet is income stated, income belongs on a statement of income. Yes retained earning is 138m but this is just total asset minus total liabilities. This makes me think you're confusing a balance sheet with a statement of profit and loss, two completely different things. Current in these terms means less than a year so, current assets minus current liabilities minus the 1m inventory that would leave 63.3m as stated in the above attachment minis the 19m a year I said it would take to run the organization if no games were played (much less than the 90+ million figure you seem to have come up with) leaves a cash balance in Croke park's account on the 31st October 2020 of 44.3m which is actually an increase of where it currently stands in terms of money in the bank. Imminent bankruptcy adverted. Though I suspect most of this 44.3 million will be distributed throughout the GAA to keep struggling clubs and councils afloat Croke park will definitely not be in the red. So the 23m hole you speak of just doesn't exist and the GAA is in little danger of going bust in the next 12 months. Again your wrong in general about the cash equivalents thing and more relevantly in Croke park's case as they do not have any promissories or property investments classed as cash equivalents. I hope that's a satisfactory answer for you because I've put more effort into this than I auth too.
Now just to repeat and so we can get off this and move on because I know I'm not the only one that doesn't understand it, HOW is the organisation, clubs and counties going to survive with zero income. Simply answer the only question I asked and no point going back to the cash in hand, because we both acknowledge that will dwindle over the next 20 years. I already stated in my original post that you took umbrage with that I have no answers, only questions. You have now appointed yourself as the one with answers although no answers only arguments. You're quarantined with nothing else to do on a Friday evening so it'll be no bother to you to let us all know (well yeah just me). Life is paramount and protection of life is the ultimate goal, so therefore games can never return if we follow that to it's ultimate conclusion. If that is wrong, when will it be safe to return to games. @JoeH mentions above that vaccines may not fully work, or uptake can be low - the flu vaccine is a case in point where some believe it actually makes you take the flu or other sicknesses and therefore won't get it.
Big Jim
Well-Known Member
Nope not at all. It's a play on the figures quoted. I know several get a little more and others do it without any remuneration at all.
With the mortgage/loan your own club has on the new facilities, will it suffer without income from the use of that facility, games or the bar?