Coronavirus and the GAA

[PatMustard]

@JoeH - there will be no second peak? How can you be so sure? Since easing of lockdown, I have seen and heard a lot more people throwing caution to the wind, and I fear a rise in cases again. The virus is still out there. Ways of transmitting and catching it, still apply.

It’s not a race to see what sports come back first. I’m partial to watching a bit of soccerball, but I can wait for it to return when it’s safe. GAA too (rugby, I couldn’t give a shite).

 

[h754136]

So the first 'peak' was the result of...

from December to March we were not washing hands, staying at home, keeping apart

But you're sure that...

There will be no 2nd peak.

Despite wanting us to...

move to getting our walking tracks open and small organised & supervised training sessions

Might stick with the advice that at least makes consistent sense. Hope the GAA do too.

 

[Armagh_paul]

This is the problem with this Coronavirus - when cases start to fall people start getting a false sense of security and return to old ways.

The problem is nobody can be relied upon to follow basic hygeine. I was out the other day (in my car) as soon as I parked up and got out of the car someone across the road didnt even bother covering their mouth and coughed into the air. If they are like that outdoors just imagine what they are like in and enclosed space.

There are too many selfish people in communities across Ireland and everywhere else for that matter. Anyone with a bit of common sense will stay well away from social gatherings for a while or atleast wear the necessary protection and learn how to use it properly. There is no point sugar coating it, people need to be realistic - socialising has changed, sporting events will change, everything has changed.

 

[JoeH]

Cases haven't started to fall - they've fell. The peak was 2nd-3rd week April as per attached file from todays updates.
Earlier in the year when the virus was upon us we were not aware off, it's symptoms, social hygiene that we need to do and so on. We are now. At that time the health service didn't know what to do - they do now.
We are facing a severe recession again twice in 11 years. We need the economy to move. We need our lives back
The harsh reality is that people die everyday from age, accidents, cancer and other ailments. They outnumber the current deaths - do we stop everything?
There may be no vaccine, there may be no treatment. I really hope there is but we can not sit at home. Economics is important but the longterm effect with mental health and the non-diagnosis and non-treatments for all must restart
Home schooling and remote schooling is OK short term for individuals but not for all.
I have stated my views very clearly - we need to reopen society quickly.
What I've seen back is some constructive critique but no alternatives.
Are you prepared to wait for a vaccine?

 

[Armagh_paul]

Cases haven't started to fall - they've fell. The peak was 2nd-3rd week April as per attached file from todays updates.
Earlier in the year when the virus was upon us we were not aware off, it's symptoms, social hygiene that we need to do and so on. We are now. At that time the health service didn't know what to do - they do now. No they dont.

We are facing a severe recession again twice in 11 years. We need the economy to move. We need our lives back - You are not getting your old life back, none of us are.

The harsh reality is that people die everyday from age, accidents, cancer and other ailments. They outnumber the current deaths - do we stop everything? This is a ridiculous comparison. We know nothing concrete about this virus - yet.

There may be no vaccine, there may be no treatment. I really hope there is but we can not sit at home. Economics is important but the longterm effect with mental health and the non-diagnosis and non-treatments for all must restart - I agree and it is gradually starting again but there has to be restrictions.

Home schooling and remote schooling is OK short term for individuals but not for all - I agree again but it opens up new possibilities when it comes to schooling. Schools have struggled for a long time - They aren't all of a sudden going to reduce class sizes.

I have stated my views very clearly - we need to reopen society quickly - Everyone wants society to reopen but that doesn't mean it should. We will adapt and things will get better but protecting lives is a priority.

What I've seen back is some constructive critique but no alternatives.
Are you prepared to wait for a vaccine? - There needs to be a radical change to our working patterns and our everyday lives. Even with children not being at school a lot of people are able to work throughout the day with no need to go in. I doubt there will be a vaccine, there are no vaccines for the other viruses but the more we know about this virus the easier it will be to live with it

 

[Big Jim]

Just seen this and copied it from Facebook as I thought it was quite good after reading the last few posts here. We're all different with different views. Some on here even like them'uns, but that IS unforgivable!!!!!!

I've added the bits in bold

As government are trying to figure out how to ease back into normal (whatever that is), please remember:
Some people don’t agree with the re-opening.... that’s okay. Be kind.
Some people are still planning to stay home.... that’s okay. Be kind.
Some are still scared of getting the virus and a second wave happening (and some in our own medical profession believe we've been hit twice already)....that’s okay. Be kind.
Some are sighing with relief to go back to work knowing they may not lose their business or their homes....that’s okay. Be kind.
‍Some are thankful they can finally have a surgery they have put off (I'm in this one)....that’s okay. Be kind.
Some will be able to attend interviews after weeks without a job....that’s okay. Be kind.
Some will wear masks for weeks....that’s okay. Be kind.
Some people will rush out to get the hair or nails done (I'm in ........... Oh never mind!).... that’s okay. Be kind.
The point is, everyone has different viewpoints/feelings and that’s okay. Be kind.
We each have a different story. If you need to stay home, stay home. But be kind .
If you need to go out, just respect others when in public and be kind!
Don’t judge fellow humans because you’re not in their story (nor do you know their circumstances). We all are in different mental states than we were months ago. So remember, be kind

 

[Armagh_paul]

My sister is a senior nurse at a hosptial in England (not going to mention where).

A woman was admitted into hospital a few days ago, was in her 70's and other than having hypertension she was fit and healthy.

She went into cardiac arrest and someone in the hospital placed DNR against this woman because of COVID-19.

It wasn't my sister's patient but she seen what was happening and after 2 minutes the doctor gave up on her. She has said she has never been so ashamed of her profession - they didn't even try.

It is well known that if hopsitals dont have the resources they can apply the DNR rule but she doesnt understand what has happened.

Anyway the point is, if any of your elderly relatives, yourselves or others go into hopsital then make sure the Dr knows under no circumstances apply a DNR to your loved on. Tbf it is probably a lot different over there then it is here.

 

[Big Jim]

My sister is a senior nurse at a hosptial in England (not going to mention where).

A woman was admitted into hospital a few days ago, was in her 70's and other than having hypertension she was fit and healthy.

She went into cardiac arrest and someone in the hospital placed DNR against this woman because of COVID-19.

It wasn't my sister's patient but she seen what was happening and after 2 minutes the doctor gave up on her. She has said she has never been so ashamed of her profession - they didn't even try.

It is well known that if hopsitals dont have the resources they can apply the DNR rule but she doesnt understand what has happened.

Anyway the point is, if any of your elderly relatives, yourselves or others go into hopsital then make sure the Dr knows under no circumstances apply a DNR to your loved on. Tbf it is probably a lot different over there then it is here.

That's sad AP and to be honest, it has happened here too. It was in the media a few weeks back. There was a big caffufle over it as there was also supposedly some relative of a politician and it was leaked so they heard about it. I always believed that a medically trained person were bound to help and preserve life were possible. If some are now playing judge and executioner because someone said they could in the crisis, then they need to take a good long hard look at themselves.
I've made no secret that I'd dearly love to see some sort of normality return and return soon, but NEVER at the avoidable cost of a life. NOT even one of them'uns and that says something so it does!

 

[PatMustard]

Heard it said that when respirators are needed, it’s the older person who draws the short straw. Awful scenario for the unfortunate patient, and medics to be placed in.

A while back I came down with a chest infection, and was short of breath for a few days. Struggled to breathe at times, especially when trying to lie down. I tell you what, it was a scary experience. Nothing as bad as not being able to breathe properly. God help any poor soul fighting for their life with such symptoms.

 

[h754136]

Are you prepared to wait for a vaccine?

This is the thing. It's not a binary choice between opening everything right now or keeping everything shut until the roll out of a vaccine. And it doesn't do the discussion any good to pretend that these are the only two options on the table.

The path proposed by the experts, and the one being followed by countries with any sense, involves a slow, tentative, incremental return to normality. This cautious path is the only way we get back to something resembling our old lives without jeopardising the efforts everyone has made over the last 10 weeks to control the spread of the virus.

Without the due patience required we risk landing back exactly where we were in early March, with all the extra inconvenience, economic strife, and death that that would bring.

 

[JoeH]

This is the thing. It's not a binary choice between opening everything right now or keeping everything shut until the roll out of a vaccine. And it doesn't do the discussion any good to pretend that these are the only two options on the table.

The path proposed by the experts, and the one being followed by countries with any sense, involves a slow, tentative, incremental return to normality. This cautious path is the only way we get back to something resembling our old lives without jeopardising the efforts everyone has made over the last 10 weeks to control the spread of the virus.

Without the due patience required we risk landing back exactly where we were in early March, with all the extra inconvenience, economic strife, and death that that would bring.

The experts provide advice to their governments - its the politicians who make and enforce decisions

We have to open faster than what's going on. Other countries who are in a worse position than Ireland are opening up more.
We need to have more confidence - people were scared sh*tless for 8 weeks (rightly so as it worked) but now we need to get out and start our businesses, get people spending money and time with friends and family.
But the balance here is about getting society back to a normality to minimise the already growing long term health crisis that is looming. Waiting lists that were already far too long are growing longer.
We can not underestimate the underlying health (mental and physical) crisis and to balance that we need people interacting with one another.
Sport is one way especially GAA.
We need our games soon and with two major stages of the government restart scheduled for June its important they happen.
Schools need to happen in September and for that to happen parents need to be happy and comfortable
Teachers need the same along with their support staff.
It's a risk worth taking knowing that we know to help minimise transmission, the health service is better equipped and more knowledgeable
It is a difficult balance but personally we need to return to a norm to mitigate the longterm damage over the next decade

 

[h754136]

Sorry Joe, but confidence, hope, and bluster isn't going to beat this thing and keep it beat. Only a logical, calculated, and well adhered to plan of action will do that.

The Brits, Americans and other nations are attempting to wing it by opening things up when they're still reporting thousands of new cases every day. There's no real sense to what they're doing - political calculations are going on that no longer seem to prioritise public health.

But in the south, and maybe the north with enough joined up thinking, there's a real chance to get numbers so low that transmissions can be reliably tracked and controlled. This is the best case scenario for us outside of a vaccine and/ or effective treatment. But we're at least a few weeks away from that yet.

For me it's better to hold on for another month, maybe two, and make sure we have a leash around this thing, rather than going early and risk it blowing up again and knocking us back to March and square one.

 

[JoeH]

Sorry Joe, but confidence, hope, and bluster isn't going to beat this thing and keep it beat. Only a logical, calculated, and well adhered to plan of action will do that.

The Brits, Americans and other nations are attempting to wing it by opening things up when they're still reporting thousands of new cases every day. There's no real sense to what they're doing - political calculations are going on that no longer seem to prioritise public health.

But in the south, and maybe the north with enough joined up thinking, there's a real chance to get numbers so low that transmissions can be reliably tracked and controlled. This is the best case scenario for us outside of a vaccine and/ or effective treatment. But we're at least a few weeks away from that yet.

For me it's better to hold on for another month, maybe two, and make sure we have a lease around this thing, rather than going early and risk it blowing up again and knocking us back to March and square one.

Numbers are low and have been
Yes a plan is needed and is available
In my opinion its too slow and we need to open faster
Since my last writings I note that dentists can re open in June in ingerland. Of course they can wear PPE but they have to be up close and personal.
The talk about 2m to 1m will happen probably June 8th.
The social distance has to reduce to build confidence.
It's good to tease out all parts of this discussion by any means including alleged bluster

 

[Armagh_paul]

Numbers are low and have been
Yes a plan is needed and is available
In my opinion its too slow and we need to open faster
Since my last writings I note that dentists can re open in June in ingerland. Of course they can wear PPE but they have to be up close and personal.
The talk about 2m to 1m will happen probably June 8th.
The social distance has to reduce to build confidence.
It's good to tease out all parts of this discussion by any means including alleged bluster

How does that build confidence?

 

[JoeH]

There are people out there observing social distancing - although in some places that has stopped a longtime ago.
By reducing to 1m more businesses can reopen meaning people can visit them
A lot of older people are afraid to go out, the ongoing ludicrous squabble about why schools can't reopen will disappear, churches will open, cafes, restaurants, hairdressers and so on.
It's a psychological gesture but a very important one.

 

[ShiftYa]

Things need to open up much faster in my opinion, people talk about prioritising public health over economic health but it not necessarily that simple, being economically healthy as a society increases life expectancy more than anything and at the minute governments are borrowing by the trillions to keep up this lockdown, also I note over the last few days deaths in the north are in the low single figures now if you weigh that against all the extra people that are going to die because of delayed cancer diagnosis/treatment, people dieing from heart attacks and strokes afraid to go to hospital, the mental health issues this is causing etc is the medicine worse than the cure?

 

[h754136]

Numbers are low and have been
Yes a plan is needed and is available
In my opinion its too slow and we need to open faster
Since my last writings I note that dentists can re open in June in ingerland. Of course they can wear PPE but they have to be up close and personal.
The talk about 2m to 1m will happen probably June 8th.
The social distance has to reduce to build confidence.
It's good to tease out all parts of this discussion by any means including alleged bluster

Your opinion is that numbers of infections of the virus are low enough that we can open things up with minimal risk of another exponential outbreak.

The opinion of the experts advising our governments, with their decades of experience, expertise, and their access to the highest quality and most recently available data and research, is that numbers of infections of the virus are not yet low enough to opening things up without risking unleashing another exponential outbreak in our society.

Why do you, Joe, think you know best?

 

[JoeH]

Your opinion is that numbers of infections of the virus are low enough that we can open things up with minimal risk of another exponential outbreak.

The opinion of the experts advising our governments, with their decades of experience, expertise, and their access to the highest quality and most recently available data and research, is that numbers of infections of the virus are not yet low enough to opening things up without risking unleashing another exponential outbreak in our society.

Why do you, Joe, think you know best?

There are approx 7million people on the island of ireland
Approx 30,000 cases via tests approx 0.05% of the populaton
That means that approx 6 million, 970 thousand people are being subjected to the reopening criteria.

For clarity 30,000 cases - 6,970,000 people who don't. Slight difference in figures.

Of the 30,000 cases approx 2500 have died
0.003% of the population have died from covid - too many but it is a virus that for a very few affects them in a ife threatening manner.

On average a thousand people die a week in Ireland - with a third related to cancer.

I'm no expert but I do research and read figures from official sources.
In no way does this make me know best but its an informed opinion.

I am not dismissing the virus but the figures speak for themselves.
I have included a few links below re flu. It's a yearly killer despite a vaccine.

The number of exceptionally low tested hospitaized cases, the very high recovery rate which is above 80% and nearing 89% in some areas simply suggest its time to re-open our economy and society to reduce and minimise the longterm health and economic structure of the country.

It would be great to have a vaccine and/or treatment available but there isn't. Life goes on.

Sources:
Cso.ie
https://files.nisra.gov.uk/Deaths/Weekly-Deaths-Dashboard.html
http://publicpolicy.ie/papers/irish-population-health-life-expectancy-and-mortality/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/
https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/...and Influenza Surveillance Report 2018-19.pdf
Note: I've referred to hospitaized tested cases. There could well be thousands more, tens maybe hundred of thousand, who have already had it or have it and don't know they have it.
Figures for cases and deaths are regularly adjusted due to reporting criteria
Ireland is widely recognised as having one of the most comprehensive reporting mechanisms.

 

[h754136]

Ah Joe, you haven't answered the question at all.

Those figures are mighty and all, but they're mostly red herrings that offer little insight into the discussion about what we do going forward. The craic about the flu, for instance, is utterly irrelevant. Different disease, different pathology, different transmissibility, different vaccine availability.

And in any case, the expert advisors have access to all these numbers, and much more detailed data, but still recommend a slower reopening than you propose.

So I ask again, why do you, even after a couple of googles and a few glances over some very broadly summarised press releases, think you know better?

 

[JoeH]

First of all you need to know and understand what your reading - its a bit disdemeaning to say a couple of googles... Those are government official websites with factual information.

I hate answering a question with a question but on this occasion I have to.
Figures released today for the north, population approx 1.8million people, show that 716 people died from C19 by Friday 22nd May. 49.3% died in care homes, 44% in hospital.
People aged over 75 accounted for 80% of all C19 deaths. That's roughly 570 people.
There are roughly 133,000 people in the north aged 75 and over

The question: do you think that keeping 1.67million people under constraints to protect an exceptionally small number of the rest is right?
716 people have died out of 1. 8million.
The peak has passed
We need to start living.
I have stated categorically I'm no expert
I'm offering my personal view backed by official figures - not broadly released data.
The south has the right strategy - I feel it could go faster on certain items like sport.
You want to live in your bubble no problem
I want my life back