Colours to the mast: I'm in the camp that believes, despite their storied past, the provincial championships are becoming the proverbial square peg. For me that’s a logical position. Yet, just like the game this afternoon, logic only ever takes you so far.
The atmosphere, drama and excitement in Clones combine to impact the collective consciousness of those in attendance and those tuning in, in a way no group stage will ever be able to do.
As a child, having travelled over the mountain from Fivemiletown, I would’ve joined the hoards trekking in a few miles or, in my earliest days, hitching a lift on the back of a tractor trailer.
The whole thing was other worldly. Mad, rip-roaring, febrile contests in the misfit cauldron of St Tiernach’s Park, Clones, were practically a rite of passage up here.
In anticipation alone, despite the turbulent build-up, today is an important timely reminder of what we are potentially losing.
Setting the emotion aside let’s return to the cold logic with which both teams will be approaching this blockbuster.
Derry’s application of mass attack not only gives them an effective attacking platform but also significantly disrupts opponents' positional set-up and allows them to dictate the terms of engagement.
Even without Rory Gallagher facing him on the sideline, this is the conundrum that Kieran McGeeney has to figure out.
Chrissy McKaigue is happy to drag his marker up the field
Derry’s positioning of several players deep inside the opposition's 21 has been obvious for a while but it is the personnel involved that is perhaps most noteworthy. It’s highly fluid of course but the likes of Eoin McEvoy, Gareth McKinless and Chrissy McKaigue were some of the most common residents there in the Monaghan game.
The consequent dragging of the opposition's best forwards so far down the pitch impacts the ability to launch effective counter-attacks when that should be the Achilles heel of Derry’s full-15 attacking shape. A win-win that you can bet is factored in.
Derry break a number of other widely accepted rules with their attacking play. Keep your shooters close to goal; keep the shooting area clear; keep a defensive plus one; inside men must be constantly moving.
Yes, the shooters are within range, but as mentioned earlier, often the defenders are closest to goal. Who was ready to pounce had Conor McCluskey’s shot for goal been saved? Eoin McEvoy.
Unlike Monaghan and Fermanagh, Armagh have the athleticism to match up one-to-one across the pitch
The 'D’ is clear at times but just as many times Derry players will drift into it. In fact, this drifting or walking movement seems a definite ploy. Many times, Derry players are static or simply walk into more condensed or deeper positions.
It's this pedestrian pace that is key to them functioning effectively in that, being diligently tagged, it allows them to move opponents around and create pockets of space that appear at odds with the fact that all 30 players are between the 45 and the endline.
Consider the alternative, if everyone is running and looking to get on the ball, it would be carnage. Many Derry players that make the trek up the pitch do not show any desire or expectation to be on the ball.
Why have they made the 100-yard trek up there then? For its impact on the opposition. Derry have seen this to be so effective that they have gone all in, pushing last year's plus one and even their goalkeeper up into the mix.
Playing in and through a crowd, even if many aren’t moving, still demands high levels of control and decision making. Hence only Derry’s best players have frequent involvements in these attacks.
The likes of Shane McGuigan, Conor Glass, Ethan Doherty and Brendan Rodgers are all repeatedly involved far in excess of other players. From here their use of loops, screens and cutting runs verges on the telepathic and, when they have shooting days like against Monaghan, they appear unstoppable.
The widely accepted approach to taking on a counter-attacking team like Derry is to mirror them, initially at least. Given the impact Derry’s all-out attack has in this scenario and the quality with which they are playing I’m not sure this works.
Unlike Monaghan and Fermanagh, Armagh have the athleticism to match up one-to-one across the pitch, that’s massive. It means they can meet Derry higher up the pitch, preventing them drifting unimpeded into their attacking shape.
It creates a one-to-one game that was effective for Dublin in the Division 2 league final but was probably best demonstrated by the Mayo performances against Dublin in those manic All-Ireland contests. Mayo’s approach knocked the control-obsessed Dubs out of their comfort zone. Dublin still won but Derry are not that Dublin team.
Will McGeeney go all out like this? Is there a balance to be struck? Can they meet Derry higher up the pitch but, remaining on the defensive side, end up in a good defensive set-up should Derry get into their attack?
Can they attempt to cover off the Derry attacking bystanders with zonal defending to increase the heat on their main ball carriers?
Ben Crealey is a powerful figure for Armagh around the middle of the park
I think they can. In fact I think their performances so far this year are made for it. Achieve the turnover, and the Armagh counter-attack in full flow is as good as there is.
With Ciaran Mackin, Jarly Óg Burns, Shane McPartlan and Ben Crealey, Armagh’s middle eight has transformed from a vulnerability to a strength and will make Derry’s high press high risk.
Derry shot the lights out against Monaghan; it was one of those days. On a normal day, I see more natural scoring power in the Armagh ranks, it’s just whether they can create enough chances.
And all that before we discuss goalkeepers.
Sold out long before mid-week, Armagh v Derry is as perfectly-poised an Ulster final as we’ve had in years. Both teams want it and want it bad. That sounds stupid, who doesn’t want to win a final? But sometimes that want is more a desperation and, while it will never be aired by either camp, I think that’s where both teams find themselves on Sunday.
This, in a year when many, including myself, have questioned the value of these provincial competitions.
Logic may take its leave for the day. Our games - the passion, the amateur status, even the competition structures - might make plenty scratch their heads. But on days like this, they somehow all make sense. Bring it on!
don't shoot me it's only a prediction
